Wednesday 30 September 2009

Hockey stick graphs

Thank you Steve McIntyre and Ross McKittrick for finally administering the coup de grace to the evil of climate pseudoscience. The beast of Anthropogenic Global Warming is dying, eyes glazing over as blood drains from a fatal wound. Wailing acolytes will no doubt gather at the corpse and deny their false god is no more, but it is too late. The corpse lies bleeding in the arena for all to see. With their statistical swords steeped in gory false assertions, the two mathematical matadors have rightly earned rose laden accolades from their sceptical audience.

All right, I'm waxing a bit lyrical with the bullfight imagery, but what two Canadian statisticians have done is monumental. By proving that the notorious graph predicting 'runaway climate change' was based on flawed data, they may have saved the western world from self destruct. That, I am convinced, is no hyperbole.

Compare and contrast the images below. The top is the original 'Hockey stick' graph predicting runaway temperature rises by the years 2000-2010, and underneath is McIntyres comparison which shows what happens when all the data available was used using the same statistical methodologies. The red line is the original flawed prediction, the black line shows the actual trend using all the tree ring proxy data available from the Yamal study. Same data set, only the original 'Hockey stick' used carefully selected (and limited) data intended to produce a particular result. Excuse me, but that isn't science, that's cheating. Jones, Briffa et al should be facing some kind of disciplinary for this.

Now let's see what the thermometers are actually telling us about the threatened apocalypse.

Ah. Looks like time to invest in Winter sports gear and thermal underwear. Anyone seen the Damart catalogue?

Bishop Hill's take on the subject is highly enlightening too.

H/T Wattsupwithat, Climate Audit, Jennifer Marohasy, Bishop Hill

1 comment:

Realtor from Toronto said...

Oh thank you thank you thank you for these graphs and this article. I shall send this to all my sceptic friends that still believe in that Al Gore nonsense and prove them wrong. i am so tire of the apocalyptic predictions and it's just incredible what those people use as facts. Thanks again!

Take care, Julie

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